The WOW! Buzz

In followup to my post last week, Studio Daily, a great web site dedicated to the professional motion picture/audio industry, has posted the latest forecasts for sales of flat panel internet-enabled HDTVs.  Interestingly, from a professional group who has heavily promoted the idea and pushed acceptance of 3DTV, they are now willing to admit that for this year anyway, sales of 3DTV are a bit of a “bust”– 4.2 million 3DTV units contrasted with 27.7 million units of Internet Enabled TV (IETV).

“Despite aggressive promotions from the industry and intense consumer interest generated by the blockbuster Avatar and other titles, the 3D TV market in 2010 will be limited to a small pool of enthusiastic early adopters,” said Riddhi Patel, director and principal analyst for television systems at iSuppli. “In contrast, IETV is entering the mainstream in 2010. This is because 3D is still dealing with a number of barriers, including cost, content availability and interoperability, while IETV provides immediate benefits by allowing TV viewers to access a range of content readily available on the Internet.”

Duh!!  Obviously a true statement, but I get the feeling that the industry in general and content providers specifically would much rather have had 3D enter the mainstream in 2010 rather than that “internet thing” where video has become something of an industry phenomenon.  Loads of “free” (You Tube) and “commercial reduced” content is made available on the internet, ironically by many of the same content providers who extract premium prices for the same content from cable companies and other more traditional distribution mechanisms.  I’m not complaining, particularly as a consumer, but it points out the schizophrenia that is rampant in the business at present.

As I’ve discussed before, 3D will enter the mainstream if and only if it is embraced by a broad consumer spectrum.  My sense is that consumers may not be willing to pay a premium for 3D equipment and content.  I’m already seeing that at my local theatre–it has one screen playing a local 3D release in 3D (at a $3 price premium) and 3 other screens playing the same release in 2D.  Local folks don’t seem that enamored by the experience, particularly at $12+ per ticket.  (Having said that, IMAX has proven that there is a niche for “enhanced” visual experience, and one of my local theatre contacts indicated that there seems to be some customer excitement when those two technologies are combined, even at a $5 price delta.)  The question remains as to whether 3D will be accepted as mainstream, or simply remain a niche for certain content.  Message to industry–if the primary goal of 3D production is to extract additional profit as opposed to truly enhancing the visual experience on appropriate content, good luck on selling that to a broad consumer base.

Until next time….